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No Immediate Coal Price Revision Despite Market Shifts

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No Immediate Coal Price Revision Despite Market Shifts

Posted on : 06-12-2023 | Author : Arunima Bharadwaj

Photo by Reuters

According to a reliable source, Coal India Ltd has no immediate plans to revise coal prices, despite the growing disparity between domestic and international coal prices. The state-owned company's decision not to seek higher margins at present is seen as a positive development for both the power sector and consumers of electricity. It is anticipated to contribute to stabilizing fuel inflation.

The source emphasized that the current circumstances do not warrant a revision in prices, citing the need to consider various factors such as electricity prices and overall economic conditions before contemplating any changes.

Experts, however, anticipate that the firm international prices of coal may influence e-auction prices domestically. Presently, domestic coal prices are at a discount of 40-50% compared to global markets.

Coal India previously revised prices four years ago and made adjustments to rates for select grades last year. The revision of coal prices primarily hinges on the periodic wage revisions for workers within the company, occurring every five years. It was noted that the typical wage increases due to factors like dearness allowance are usually absorbed by the company, owing to enhanced productivity.

Furthermore, analysts observe a potential uptick in domestic e-auction coal prices owing to a rise in Indonesian coal prices. Recent reports indicate a 17% increase in the price of Indonesian coal (4200 kcal) since August.

Despite increased coal production in India, continued elevated imports from China are anticipated in the near future. This situation arises due to safety audits causing mine closures and reduced hydro-power generation affecting domestic coal production.

India's reliance on coal imports constitutes over a fifth of its total coal consumption, with the import bill reaching close to Rs 3.9 trillion last year. E-auction sales contribute to roughly 15% of the domestic coal market.

Coal India's latest data reveals a production of 460 million tonnes of coal until November in the current fiscal year, marking an 11.5% increase from the corresponding period last year. November alone witnessed an 8.8% growth in production, with the company's pithead inventory estimated at 45 million tonnes, suggesting ample supply to meet additional coal demands.

ICICI Securities projects Coal India's volume growth at 751 million tonnes for the ongoing financial year, indicating a potential upward revision of consensus estimates by at least 20%, as per their analysis.