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Favourable Weather Trends in Europe Drive Limited Power Demand, Reducing Reliance on Coal Generation

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Favourable Weather Trends in Europe Drive Limited Power Demand, Reducing Reliance on Coal Generation

Posted on : 10-06-2023 | Author : Bloomberg

Europe is expected to experience limited power demand in June due to favourable weather patterns, which will reduce the need for coal-based electricity generation in the region. Analysts predict that Mediterranean countries will have cooler weather than usual, potentially lowering the need for air-conditioning and creating a favourable market environment. Unlike the Mediterranean, regions like Germany, which are expected to see higher temperatures, do not typically witness a significant increase in electricity demand in response to heat. This decrease in power demand across Europe presents an opportunity to rely more on renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on costly fuels like coal. Germany, for instance, is already burning coal at about half the seasonal average for this time of year, and in May, solar power surpassed coal as the primary source of electricity generation in Europe for the first time. The combination of lower demand and increased low-carbon generation is narrowing the space for fossil fuel-based power generation in European markets, leading to a potential reduction in power prices in June. The power market is already sensitive to weather conditions and is expected to become even more responsive as renewable energy sources, with their intermittent generation, become more prominent and short-term contracts gain popularity. Additionally, sunny and windy weather conditions could further decrease gas demand in Europe, where gas prices are already hovering just above €20 per megawatt-hour. Given the current spot prices, it is currently unprofitable to generate power using gas or coal in Germany, which is Europe's largest power market. However, European power prices rose on Monday due to an increase in gas prices triggered by Saudi Arabia's announcement of additional crude-output cuts. Despite the price increase, German power for the next month remained below half of its level from the same period last year.