In November, China is set to witness a significant surge in thermal coal imports, marking the second-highest monthly total of this year. This surge has driven price escalations for the commonly sought-after coal grades in the world's leading buyer of this power station fuel. Anticipated to reach 29.21 million metric tons, November's imports are propelled by increased arrivals from Indonesia, the largest exporter of thermal coal.

According to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler, China's heightened demand for Indonesian coal, known for its low sulphur content blending well with domestic supplies, has fuelled this surge. As a result, prices have rallied, with Indonesian coal hitting $58.94 per metric ton for fuel with an energy content of 4,200 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg).

This upswing in prices has possibly contributed to decreased interest in India, the second-largest importer of thermal coal. India's projected imports for November are lower at 17.78 million metric tons, with reduced arrivals from Indonesia and a larger share expected from Australia, the second-biggest exporter.

Simultaneously, China's heightened purchases from Australia, mainly for the same grade favoured by India, have seen a significant uptick, reaching 7.22 million metric tons. This surge in demand even surpasses pre-ban volumes from mid-2020, marking the highest monthly total in the Kpler data records going back to 2017.

Moreover, South Africa, acting as a swing supplier, has seen increased exports to Asia, impacting price moderation for Indonesian and Australian grades. Its shipments to Europe have declined, redirecting more cargoes to Asian buyers.

The increased availability of South African coal in Asia has played a role in reshaping global trading dynamics, influencing price trends and altering the trade flow preferences of major importers like China and India.