Confirming the concerns of missing its binding 2030 carbon emissions targets set in the Paris climate agreement, senior government officials from South Africa revealed that the country will likely fall short due to plans to extend the operation of eight coal-fired power plants. Despite its commitment to reducing emissions between 350 and 420 million tonnes by 2030, down from 442 million tonnes in 2020, bureaucratic obstacles have delayed the transition to renewable energy. The intended decommissioning of these coal-fired plants, initially set for completion by 2034, with six slated for closure by 2030, faces challenges amidst a power supply crisis.

Unnamed officials cited the improbability of meeting the 2030 targets due to the current power supply constraints. Discussions about a new decommissioning target for 2035 are reportedly underway. However, South Africa remains committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Eskom, the state-owned power utility, echoed the sentiment that the emission reduction targets for 2030 are likely to be missed. Despite this, the environment ministry, responsible for endorsing climate targets, expressed a continued commitment to meeting the Paris agreement commitments, emphasizing the need to wait for the submission of the latest greenhouse gas inventory report to the United Nations before the upcoming COP28 summit later this month.

This news arrives amidst a global trend where various affluent countries and corporations are revising or delaying their climate pledges. Canada and the United Kingdom have faced concerns about missing their respective 2030 targets, while significant oil and gas companies and European nations have encountered setbacks or reversals in transitioning to renewable energy.

Acknowledging the difficulty of removing operational coal-fired plants during a power crisis, Crispian Olver, the executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), suggested deferring such actions until the crisis is resolved. Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa emphasized the need to delay plant decommissioning due to an ongoing existential crisis, marked by persistent and lengthy power outages.

The extension of the coal plants raises concerns about trade competitiveness, access to capital, geopolitical influence, and the potential loss of international support, according to a spokesperson for the Presidential Climate Commission.

As COP28 approaches, Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is set to assess countries' progress towards their climate goals, highlighting the repercussions of missing emission targets on global climate change and the adverse effects on South Africans living in areas heavily impacted by coal plant pollution.