The demand for fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal is set to reach an all-time high before 2030, warns Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite previous discussions about reaching "peak oil" and "peak coal," these fuels are now experiencing unprecedented growth. However, Birol notes that this era of relentless expansion is coming to an end this decade, which will have significant implications for the global energy sector and the fight against climate change.

Birol's assessment is based on the forthcoming IEA report, the World Energy Outlook, scheduled for release in October. According to him, the world is on the brink of a historic turning point in energy demand. Several factors contribute to this shift, including the growth of clean energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as current global government policies.

Even without new climate policies, the IEA's projections indicate that demand for each fossil fuel—oil, gas, and coal—is expected to peak in the coming years, marking the first time that such a peak is visible for each fuel this decade, earlier than many anticipated. China, the largest consumer of coal, has also seen increased use of renewable and nuclear energy, which will contribute to a decline in coal consumption. Furthermore, the adoption of electric vehicles, including buses and scooters, is expected to lead to the peak of oil demand before 2030.

The "Golden Age of Gas," previously identified by the IEA in 2011, will diminish due to the growth of renewables, along with increased use of heat pumps and Europe's accelerated transition away from Russian gas pipelines following the Ukrainian conflict. The decline in fossil fuel demand will be more pronounced in advanced economies, but the growth in emerging and developing economies, especially in gas consumption, will partially offset the climate benefits.

However, extreme weather events may temporarily interrupt the global shift away from fossil fuels. Heatwaves increase electricity demand, while droughts reduce hydropower availability, leading to occasional spikes in demand.

Despite these changes, the decline in fossil fuel demand is not occurring quickly enough to limit global warming to the internationally supported target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Achieving this goal will require stronger and faster policy actions by governments to transition to cleaner energy sources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.