Experts say grid upgrades and demand-side management are needed to meet loads made greater by A/C during extremely hot summer

Despite the wave of permits for coal power projects, the penetration of renewable energy into China’s power system continues to accelerate.

Since the beginning of summer, much of China has sweltered under exceptionally high temperatures of 35C or more, particularly in the north. Beijing experienced 15 high temperature days during June, and by mid-July more than 27 such days had been recorded, the most since meteorological records began.

To deal with these temperatures, demand for cooling surged, bringing forward the start of summertime peak power demand. In the second quarter, the load on Beijing’s power grid was up by    about 30% year-on-year, while multiple record high loads were recorded in Guangxi and Hainan provinces.

Despite heavy rain and flooding across China starting on 29 July, high temperatures could return in August, possibly bringing further increases in power demand, according to Wang Yawei, head of the China Meteorological Administration’s emergency disaster mitigation and public service division.

China’s power system appears to have been well prepared this year, following widespread power  shortages in Sichuan last summer. Ou Hong, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), recently said: “Preparations for ensuring supply through the summer peak have been earlier and more comprehensive this year.”

“We have the confidence, commitment and capability to guarantee a secure, stable supply of energy and electricity in response to peak summer demand,” he added.

Most of these preparations have taken the form of increasing coal power capacity and generation.

Total electricity consumption in China from January to June this year was about 4,300 terawatt-hours (tWh), a rise of 5% year-on-year, according to data from the National Energy Administration (NEA). Scorching summer weather, and the greater usage of A/C and other cooling equipment, has driven a rapid increase in electricity demand.

Yu Bing, deputy director of the NEA, confirmed recently that the peak period for electricity consumption came earlier this year, with soaring temperatures in a number of regions. According to data provided by the State Grid Corporation of China, the highest load on the north China power grid exceeded 276 gigawatts (GW) on 23 June, the highest load of the summer up to that point and an increase of 2.9% compared to the same day last year. A day later, the peak load reached 281 GW, an increase of 5.3%.

Meanwhile, peak load at the south China power grid had already reached 222 GW, close to the highest on record, according to an official speaking in June. Record highs for electricity consumption had already been set multiple times in both Guangxi and Hainan, the official added.

The China Electricity Council has forecast this year’s highest load, nationally, to be about 1.37 terawatts (TW), some 80 GW (or 6.2%) higher than in 2022. In the event of widespread weather extremes over a lengthy period, the highest load could be 100 GW higher than in 2022. The overall balance of electricity supply and demand across the whole country is going to be tight this summer.

On 30 June, SASAC (the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council) said state-owned enterprises should do everything in their means to ensure the security and supply of power through the summer peak: power generators are to supply all the power demanded of them, as far as possible; coal producers are to go all out to ensure coal supplies for electricity generation; and grid operators are to stand firm in support of meeting people’s electricity needs and ensuring security of production.

Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, who has long studied China’s energy issues, told China Dialogue: “At a time of seasonally high temperatures and intensifying regional weather extremes, most parts of China are susceptible to power shortages. This year in particular, with high temperatures right across the high-load provinces of eastern China, electricity for cooling is driving the highest loads even higher, meaning that for short periods it will be harder to ensure power supply. In major hydropower provinces such as Yunnan and Sichuan, meanwhile, drought and low rainfall in recent months have brought a significant decline in hydroelectricity output. Overall, it has become more of a challenge to ensure the nation’s electricity supply.”

With hydropower output contracting and power generation from renewables being insufficiently stable, thermal power (particularly coal) has been China’s ultimate guarantor of power supply this summer.