According to independent research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy, South Africa is unlikely to meet its target of renewable energy accounting for 41% of its power mix by the end of the decade. Instead, renewables are projected to only make up 20% of the country's power generation. The initial goal was to achieve this target by increasing onshore wind and solar capacity. However, due to rising demand and the need to manage load shedding, South Africa has increasingly relied on fossil fuel alternatives, including coal power, which still dominates the country's electricity generation, making up more than 80% of the power mix.

By 2030, South Africa's power generation is expected to increase by over 40%, reaching approximately 300TWh. Although investment in renewable energy capacity is growing, the country continues to face challenges in reducing its reliance on coal and transitioning to a more sustainable energy sector. Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil, a renewables and power analyst at Rystad Energy, highlights the need for diversification and immediate action to overcome these hurdles and align with environmental goals.

Despite the obstacles, South Africa has made significant efforts to meet its 2030 target through initiatives like the Renewable Independent Power Producer Program (REIPPP), which has driven renewable energy development. The country is currently reviewing applications for large-scale solar and onshore wind projects, many of which include battery storage. To facilitate renewable deployment, South Africa is also improving its transmission infrastructure, and the government has approved a bill to promote private generation projects and power trading, aiming to reduce dependence on the state-owned utility Eskom and encourage private sector participation.

While renewable energy growth is promising, the country's reliance on coal power remains a hindrance. With many coal power plants exceeding their projected lifespan, there are concerns regarding energy security and decarbonization. South Africa aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but the expansion of the coal fleet poses a challenge. Rystad suggests that South Africa should consider the role of gas in its energy mix and recognize the importance of battery storage to meet energy demands and decarbonization goals.

The report concludes that, given the limitations of coal power, integrating renewable energy sources with flexible gas power and battery storage offers a viable path forward. South Africa's goal of diversifying its generation mix and reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires proactive measures to improve transmission infrastructure and streamline project authorizations.