Australia's export earnings are projected to decline in the next two years, returning to pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine energy price levels. According to the latest Resources and Energy Quarterly Report from the Office of the Chief Economist, Australia's resource and energy exports generated an estimated record A$460 billion in earnings in 2022-23, driven by Russia's military actions and the strength of the US dollar. However, export earnings are expected to decrease to A$390 billion in 2023-24 and further to A$344 billion in 2024-25 as energy prices revert to levels before the Russian invasion.

The report predicts a decline in liquefied natural gas (LNG) earnings, from A$92 billion in 2022 to A$68 billion in 2023-24, with a further drop to A$60 billion in 2024-25, due to easing LNG prices and reduced volumes. Thermal coal exports are also expected to decrease significantly from A$64 billion in 2022-23 to approximately A$38 billion in 2023-24 and A$30 billion in 2024-25. On the other hand, exports of metals used in the energy transition are anticipated to remain over A$40 billion, having doubled since 2021-22.

Metallurgical coal exports are forecasted to increase with the opening of new mines, from an estimated 157 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 175 million tonnes by 2024-25. However, declining prices will result in a decrease in metallurgical coal export revenue, from an estimated A$60 billion in 2022-23 to A$42 billion in 2024-25.

Iron-ore spot prices have moderated, driven by a global economic growth slowdown and a slower recovery of Chinese steel production. Iron-ore export earnings are expected to decline from A$123 billion in 2022-23 to A$113 billion in 2023-24 and further to A$95 billion in 2024-25. Gold earnings are also projected to decrease from A$23 billion in 2022-23 to around A$21 billion in 2024-25.

Critical minerals and base metals, crucial for low-emission technologies, posted record earnings of A$46 billion in 2022-23. However, earnings in this sector are expected to decline slightly as lower prices offset higher volumes.

Minister for Resources and Northern Australia, Madeleine King, highlighted the significant growth in lithium exports, reaching over A$19 billion in 2022-23 but is expected to decline to around A$15 billion in 2024-25 due to moderating prices. Nickel export earnings are forecasted to decrease from A$4.5 billion in 2022-23 to A$4.2 billion in 2024-25, while copper export earnings are expected to grow to A$13 billion in 2024-25, up from A$12 billion in 2022, driven by increased production.

King emphasized the government's commitment to supporting the development of the critical minerals sector, positioning Australia as a clean-energy superpower, and helping meet emissions reduction commitments. She stated that Australia's resources sector plays a crucial role in achieving the country's net-zero goals, as it is well-positioned to supply the long-term demand for base metals and critical minerals used in clean-energy technologies.