Eskom, the South African utility, anticipates that the demand for electricity during the remaining winter months will be lower than initially projected. The utility had previously warned of the possibility of Stage 8 loadshedding (16 hours of power cuts in a 32-hour cycle) if coal plant breakdowns exceeded 15,000 MW and demand surged due to colder temperatures, especially in Gauteng. However, according to Eric Shunmagum from Eskom, there have been positive developments on both fronts, with demand decreasing from the peak of 33,000 MW in late May and improvements observed in supply from both Eskom and renewable energy plants.

The implementation of the winter tariff on June 1 for large energy-intensive businesses is expected to further reduce demand by an estimated 850 MW to 1,000 MW, as some industrial plants have shut down in compliance with the tariff. Additionally, Eskom is conducting a demand-side management campaign to achieve an additional reduction of 1,000 MW in consumption over the coming months. Shunmagum emphasizes that the deviation from the winter demand base case is primarily due to weather conditions, which have also supported the availability of renewable energy generation. The wind fleet, in particular, has performed well during recent cold fronts, supplying up to 2,000 MW during evening peaks on certain days.

While Gauteng may still experience a cold snap that could drive up demand significantly, Eskom expects peak demand to remain below the base case peak forecast outlined in May for the rest of the winter period until September. The latest peak demand forecast indicates that demand will not exceed 32,000 MW again this winter. Shunmagum highlights improvements on the supply side, with unit breakdowns currently trending between 14,500 MW and 16,000 MW, compared to the range of 18,500 MW to 19,000 MW observed in May. This represents a significant improvement of approximately 3,000 MW in breakdowns.

Eskom's generation division has been working towards sustaining breakdowns below 15,000 MW and capping planned outages below 3,000 MW to minimize loadshedding and reduce reliance on diesel at the open cycle gas turbines. The utility reports notable turnarounds in generation performance at Tutuka, Duvha, Kendal, and Majuba power stations.

In terms of supply, Eskom has received approval from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment to postpone meeting the sulphur dioxide minimum emission standards for the Kusile power station. This decision allows Eskom to operate temporary stacks at three units that were rendered inoperable after the collapse of Unit 1's flue duct on October 23, which affected the flue ducts of Units 2 and 3 as well, as they share a chimney. With the updated Atmospheric Emission Licence, Kusile will bypass the flue gas desulphurisation plant until March 31, 2025, and resume output using temporary stacks that will be returned to service in November (Unit 3) and December (Unit 1 and Unit 2). However, the units will not operate at full load of approximately 720 MW; instead, they will produce around 520 MW each while employing the temporary stacks. Eskom plans to complete repairs to the permanent stack's ducts by December 2024.